Goose Creek, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

918
FXUS62 KCHS 210115
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
915 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will strengthen across the region through early
next week. A weak cold front may approach from the west around
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Late evening GOES-E mid-level water vapor imagery shows
shortwave energy dropping south along the Georgia and far
southern South Carolina coast with an associated vorticity
maximum positioned about 60 NM east/southeast of the Savannah
River Entrance. This feature will moves steadily south tonight
with DNVA/subsidence builds in in its wake. Earlier shower
activity has dissipate with the loss of insolation and the
diurnally driven cumulus field has dissipated. Clear to mostly
clear skies will prevail. The boundary layer has decoupled
inland with calm to light winds prevailing. Winds are holding up
just a bit along the coast. Wind should pick up a bit just
before daybreak as high pressure nudges south. While some patchy
fog could develop across far interior Southeast Georgia and up
along parts of interior Southeast South Carolina adjacent to the
CSRA and Midlands, no major impacts are expected. Lows from the
upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the beaches and Downtown
Charleston look good. Very few changes were needed for the late
evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The mid-levels will consist of a trough just off the East Coast
Saturday morning and ridging over the central U.S., with
embedded high pressure over TX. By Monday, the trough will have
shifted further offshore, pushed by the ridge that will have
moved over the East Coast. Additionally, the embedded High
should be over the FL Panhandle. At the surface, High pressure
will remain over the Southeast U.S. Subsidence associated with
the High is expected to bring mainly dry weather during the
short term. We will note that most of the synoptic models are
completely dry on Saturday. Though, the long-range CAMs are
split between it being completely dry and some members showing
light showers along the GA coast. PWATs are around 1.5", but
many model soundings show decent dry air in place. So we opted
to go with 10% POPs in these locations Saturday afternoon. If
anything does manage to form, it will be isolated, brief,
light, and may just be sprinkles. Saturday evening through
Monday are completely dry. Temperatures will trend higher due to
approaching ridge. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s
Saturday, and the upper 80s to around 90 degrees on Sunday and
Monday. Though, it will be cooler at the beaches. Lows Saturday
will be in the mid to upper 60s for most locations. Sunday
night they`ll be in the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s along
the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will initially be over our region, then
shift offshore mid to late next week. A cold front should
approach from the northwest on Friday. This synoptic pattern
will yield dry conditions through Wednesday, with increased POPs
Thursday and Friday. High temperatures should be at or slightly
above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, trending lower Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
21/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 22/00z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no concerns.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure will increase across the marine zones
tonight. Winds across the nearshore and outer waters will remain
from the ENE around 10 kts this evening, increasing to 10-15
kts late tonight. Seas should range between 2 to 4 ft.

Saturday: The interaction between High pressure inland and a
weak trough south of FL will yield sustained NE winds 10-15 kt
during the day. Winds will ease during the evening and
overnight. Seas will average 2-4 ft during the day with some 5
footers in the GA waters from 20-60 nm. Seas should drop about 1
foot during the evening and overnight.

Sunday through midweek: High pressure will prevail inland, then
begin to move offshore midweek. Expect sustained winds to be
mainly 10 kt or less. Seas will average 2-3 ft within 20 nm and
3-4 ft for the GA waters from 20-60 nm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Coastal Flood Advisory continues through midnight for
Charleston and Coastal Colleton for minor coastal flooding.

Coastal flooding is likely again up and down the entire coast
with high tide late Saturday morning. For Charleston Harbor, the
current 7.9 ft MLLW forecast look solid. There is some concern
that levels could get uncomfortably close to major flood levels
(8.0 ft MLLW), but this scenario only has about 10% probability
of occurrence. A Coastal Flood Watch for Charleston and
Colleton Counties will not be issued with this forecast update
for this reason. Fort Pulaski looks to say solidly in the minor
flood category. Coastal Flood Advisories will be needed for all
coastal zones from late morning into the early afternoon hours.

Positive tidal anomalies and high astronomical tides from the
recent full moon will lead to elevated tides through the
weekend. Although the astronomical high tides are lowering,
coastal flooding is expected with each daytime high tide cycle
along the Charleston and Colleton county coasts.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ049-
     050.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$