Goose Creek, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

739
FXUS62 KCHS 111129
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
729 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will be situated inland of the area today. High
pressure will prevail late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, the pattern will transition as the main belt of
westerlies retreats to the north and ridging builds in turning
the flow more anticyclonic with time. At the surface, a subtle
boundary will remain situated inland across central GA and the
central Carolinas while the subtropical high over the Atlantic
will take on more influence along the Southeast coast. Overall,
the setup will transition to be more of a typical summertime
pattern with weak large scale forcing and subtle mesoscale
features serving as the main source of initiation for diurnal
convection. For the morning, hi-res models suggest that land
areas should be mostly free of any shower and thunderstorm
activity with the focus for convection being off the coast over
the coastal waters. Then as we move into the early afternoon,
convection should start to fire along and just inland of the
developing sea breeze. Model soundings reveal a significant
difference in the near storm environment compared to previous
days as mid-level flow will be 15 knots or less. This will
result in slow-moving storms that will try to move back to the
east or southeast, counter to the inland moving sea breeze.
MLCAPE values look to be more on the order of 1,000 J/kg, with
DCAPE in the 700- 900 J/kg. Overall, the severe risk is
certainly lower than the last few days, but there could still be
one or two strong to marginally severe storms especially where
boundary interactions enhance updrafts. Current thinking is that
coverage will warrant 40-60 percent rain chances this
afternoon, but there are certainly differences in the hi-res
solutions. Recent runs of the HRRR suggest considerably less
coverage. We will continue to monitor and update as needed.
Highs are forecast to top out in the upper 80s in most areas.

This evening and tonight: Lingering afternoon convection should
gradually diminish through the evening and then pick up in
coverage across the coastal waters through the late night hours.
Lows are forecast to fall into the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fairly typical summertime pattern for late week. Atlantic high
pressure will be the dominant surface feature through the period
with a stalled front over the region expected to dissipate on
Thursday. Ridging largely prevails aloft, however weak shortwave
energy is progged to rotate through the region at times.
Forecast will be on repeat with showers and thunderstorms
possible each day, with coverage peaking in the afternoon when
instability is maximized. Organized severe weather is not
expected with weak shear but cannot rule out a stronger storm or
two. Temperatures will be seasonable, mainly in the upper 80s
to around 90. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s, except upper
70s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level ridge will persist over the Southeast early next
week, although it could be briefly suppressed as a shortwave
trough passes by to the north. This could bring another front
towards the region but will likely stall in the vicinity into
Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day,
especially during peak heating, but some activity could linger
overnight as well. Highs average in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
although humidity will make it feel even hotter. Heat indices
will creep up into the 100-105 range in many locations, shy of
Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The 12z TAF period begins with VFR conditions in place at KCHS,
KJZI, and KSAV. It looks like thunderstorms will develop along
the afternoon sea breeze and will not exhibit very much motion.
Confidence in direct impacts is low, but there should be enough
coverage of thunderstorms to warrant VCTS at all 3 sites. We
have introduced VCTS at KCHS and KJZI starting at 19z, and at
20z for KSAV.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are
possible in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: Winds are expected to be more southerly
today with speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range.
The strongest winds are expected along the land/sea interface
with the development of the sea breeze. This should result in
some gusts up to 20 knots along the coast including Charleston
Harbor. Seas should mostly average 2-3 feet through the period.

Thursday through Monday: Marine conditions are expected to stay
below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period.
Southerly flow will persist with speeds 15 knots or less. Seas
will average 2- 3 feet.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...BSH/ETM
MARINE...BSH/ETM